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How is the Ukrainian conflict affecting global food supply?


Ukraine is the world's fourth-largest grain exporter while Russia sat in third, according to the International Grains Council.


Ukraine is predicted to lose $6 billion in grain exports due to the blockage of ports because of the Russian blockade.


This blockade restricts Ukraine from selling around 20 million tonnes of wheat and corn that has been earmarked for export by June at an average price of around $300 per tonne.

The cost of everyday food items might rise in places like Turkey and North Africa, which rely on wheat and corn from Ukraine and Russia. More than 40% of Ukraine’s wheat and corn exports went to the Middle East or Africa last year - and disruptions to supply could affect availability in these areas significantly.

A fall in the supply (as seen on the diagram below) of wheat due to a shock in the market from the blockade will raise prices on a global scale, meaning new contracts may be of little avail unless they are exclusive.

Despite the UK growing 90% of their wheat domestically, the price of wheat is still predicted to follow the trend of oil because of increased scarcity. This will inevitably lead to further uncertainty within the economy and put further inflationary pressures on the UK, with the current UK inflation rate sitting at 5.5% and predicted to rise to 8%.

 

Written by Rohan Dhir

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