India growth forecasts decrease as public health worsens

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Oxford economics has released new forecasts relating to India’s economic growth in response to worsening public health within the nation.

Oxford economics reports that India’s current growth forecast is at 10.2%, a reduction from its previous 11.8%.

Despite the decrease, the nation is still predicted to experience massive growth this year as it is a developing economy.

However, experts from a global forecasting firm expect their GDP to contract sequentially in the second quarter despite plans of India planning to relax their lockdown with less strict restrictions.

The worsening predictions are mainly attributed to the fact that in recent days, India has seen a severe decrease in public health.

Unfortunately, Delhi has recently experienced shortages of oxygen and COVID-19 hospital beds, Oxford economics states that “While the official mortality rate has edged lower, it masks a rapidly rising death count. Deaths are now doubling every ten days.”

This is opposed to the previous average of 29 days during the first waves, further, India’s worsening public health is also shown by the increase in COVID cases as in the past week 300 thousand new cases have been reported.

Regrettably, India does not have the necessary funds and resources necessary to combat this immense wave of COVID-19, for this reason, the recent human loss has been immense.

The situation has gotten so awful that individuals who have died from COVID-19 are no longer being given proper, respectful burials as the volume of deaths is simply too high to handle.

Instead, the nation has had to resort to mass cremation.

Now, it does not take an economist to realise that what is occurring in India will have adverse effects on its economy.

But it should not be the economy and the prospect of growth that the Indian government should focus on, instead, they should begin to highly prioritise public spending in healthcare in an attempt to try and ease this wave of COVID.

At this point especially, it is most important for India to ensure that public health improves, economic growth is important, but the human loss is undeniably significant, so, growth at the expense of public health is a trade-off that is completely unfavourable.

We cannot go back to normality and see normal levels of growth without eradicating COVID first, so, governments around the world, and especially India, should focus their efforts on ensuring that public health is as good as it can possibly be.


Research compiled by Jonas Theaker.


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